P.D.P Adapts To New Political Landscape.

The electoral commission on August 10 reported victory for the opposition All Progressives' Congress (APC) candidate in the Osun state gubernatorial election. The defeat is a blow to the ruling Peoples' Democratic Party's (PDP) political strategy, which is to break into opposition strongholds before national polls take place next February. 

 Nonetheless, the PDP's response to opposition gains since the party's historic split last year has revealed its resilience. With more robust electoral administration, the PDP appears to be abandoning the election-rigging tactics of the past, focusing instead on high-spending, populist messages -- and manipulating the security environment. With the APC in control of 15 states compared to the ruling party's 19, next year's election could be Nigeria's most competitive in over two decades.
Impact

Planned and ongoing impeachment sagas against opposition governors in Adamawa and Nasarawa will continue, with possible stability effects.
The electoral commission's fairly robust oversight of recent state elections will be harder to scale-up nationally.
The PDP's grassroots 'direct wealth transfer' tactics for voters will undercut the APC's technocratic reform message.

What next

In the run-up to 2015, the APC will have to devote significant energy to resist the PDP pushback at the local level, distracting it from building a cohesive national party and campaign. Meanwhile, the newly-populist PDP has choices to make about how it appeals to the wider public: politicising religion or 'terrorism' has dangerous stability implications. Overall, these trends indicate that Nigeria's elections will remain high-spending events, with consequences for the economy and reform programme.
Analysis

President Goodluck Jonathan's choice to abandon the 'zoning' formula for rotating the PDP presidential ticket (between northern and southern parts of the country) destroyed an historic power-sharing pact, which has for years held competing elites from around the country together. Last year it provoked a mass exodus from his party.
Many of the dissidents joined with the south-west's progressive Christian Association of Nigeria. Together with a coalition of influential northern politicians, they formed the APC. Incumbency at the state level creates the ability to use advantages to win national elections. The APC's control of governorships therefore constitutes a threat to the PDP.
Subtle strategies
The PDP has been revitalised under its new chairman, former Bauchi state Governor Adamu Mu'Azu. He has engineered the effort to erode APC powerbases, reducing their advantage before national polls. This has been apparent in two recent state elections in Ekiti (June 21) and Osun (August 10) -- where previous judicial challenges put elections on a different timetable to those in other states.
The results in each state were different:

in Ekiti the PDP unseated the incumbent APC governor; and
in Osun the APC incumbent retained his seat.

Nonetheless, they revealed three new trends which set the scene for next year. These include:
improved electoral administration;
populist approaches; and
manipulating the security environment.

Electoral governance

The Nigeria Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has improved its performance. In Osun and Ekiti, the results were delivered in a timely fashion, electoral administration was not manipulated, and the vote was declared free and fair by observers. INEC pressure to ensure transparent performance from regional electoral commissioners was notable, fuelled partly by discredited gubernatorial elections in Anambra state last year.
It will be far more difficult to scale-up this oversight across the country for February's national polls, creating space for corrupt practices at the local level. Nonetheless, it is significant that the PDP's past election practices (eg tampering with ballot papers) can no longer easily occur.
Populism revival
Partly as a result of better administration, populist politics are seeing a revival:

Ekiti
Nationally-respected incumbent Kayode Fayemi (APC) competed against Ayo Fayose (PDP), a discredited former governor.
Fayemi is known for administrative reforms, effective service delivery and infrastructure construction. His campaign focused on these 'modernisation' messages, utilising social media and alliances with organised groups such as students and motorbike taxi riders.
By contrast, Fayose has an open case with the national anti-corruption body and a reputation for deploying violent political tactics. However, as a well-funded, grassroots operator, he embarked on a campaign focused on generous hand-outs, roadside 'meet and greets', a negative SMS campaign against 'technocratic' Fayemi, and vague policy promises.
Fayose won by 203,090 votes to Fayemi's 120,433, taking every local government seat, including Fayemi's own home area. This was a significant setback for the APC, eradicating a political post for one of its leading figures as well as the myth that the PDP could not win 'free and fair' elections.
Osun
The PDP's 'deep pocket' campaign was similar in Osun, while the APC touted its technocratic performance. However, this time the APC's incumbent Raufu Aregbesola won with 394,648 votes (22 out of 30 local government areas) to the PDP candidate's (Senator Iyola Omisore) 292,744 votes.
The major difference was the character and approach of Aregbesola. In 2011 he had rejected his party's electoral pact with Jonathan, aligning instead with the governor who eventually won Osun state. Moreover, his large budget allowed him to combine reform with populist politics to deepen grassroots support. By contrast, the uncharismatic Omisore has a long history in state politics, but is known for spending long periods in Abuja.
Constituencies

The PDP's Ekiti success was anchored in support from constituencies dissatisfied with tightly-targeted public spending. These included lower-level urban state-allied employees (such as transport workers and teachers), as well as votes from rural unemployed/semi-employed youth and market women.
Both groups felt they had not experienced direct economic benefits from reform, were alienated from government by its failure to hold local council elections, or simply viewed Fayemi's team as technocrats with no grassroots political linkages. Higher income or educated groups that may have been attracted by Fayemi's messaging voted in far fewer numbers.
Those who decided both elections appeared to be more marginal and even more short-termist in their assessments of political performance. This leaves direct wealth transfer as important as promises for lasting transformation -- with broader implications for Nigerian reform programmes.
Security governance

The Osun and Ekiti elections also reveal greater manipulation of the security environment:

The national level organs of the PDP posted partisan security officials (including police and military personnel) at strategic points in each state.
Large deployments not only prevented violence, but also cracked down on APC campaigners, deported sympathetic journalists and prevented allied governors from entering the state.
The minister of state for defence came to supervise campaigning periods.
The PDP's re-introduction of army officers into the political sphere is a new development. This is significant given the stringent effects made by the first civilian administration from 1999 to depoliticise the security services after years of military rule.
Expensive elections

Overall, in the absence of real party allegiances, greater nominal competition between the PDP and APC increases the pressure for material resource allocation: both to mobilise voters and retain politicians who are willing to swap camps. Yet in the pre- and post-election period, parties will find that distributing more resources means slowing the pace of reform and development.

Joseph Abuku 
joseph.abuku@gmail.com

+234 803 7276237